Claim: “The share of higher-rate taxpayers has risen more than five-fold in five years.”

Overview

Nigel Farage and Reform UK figures have argued that the share of people paying higher-rate income tax has increased “more than five-fold” in five years. The point is used to frame a story of rapid tax creep and to justify large income-tax policy changes. The picture is more complicated. Fiscal drag from frozen tax thresholds has clearly expanded the number of higher-rate taxpayers, yet the specific claim about the change in the share is not supported on a like-for-like basis.

What was claimed

The headline figure suggests that the proportion of taxpayers in the 40% or 45% bands is now over five times what it was five years ago. To be meaningful, a claim like this needs a consistent definition of both the numerator (how many people are in the higher bands) and the denominator (who counts as a taxpayer or within scope), taken from comparable time periods.

What the data show

The number of people in higher bands has increased as thresholds were frozen while wages rose. That mechanism is well established and widely reported as “fiscal drag.” But inflating this into a five-fold share risks mixing incompatible bases. For example, using one year’s figure for people in higher-rate bands and dividing it by a different year’s estimate of total taxpayers, or switching between “all adults,” “all earners,” and “income-tax payers,” can produce exaggerated ratios that are not comparable.

A sound approach keeps the definitions consistent across the comparison period. When that is done, the rise is significant but falls short of “five-fold.” Independent reviewers note that the claim often relies on selective denominators or partial data, which pushes the multiplier up without explaining the change in method.

Independent fact-checking

PA Media Fact Check examined this statement and found the “five-fold” framing misleading. Their review explains that while many more people are paying higher-rate tax than five years ago, the specific multiplier depends heavily on how the share is defined and which population is used as the base. On a like-for-like basis, the five-fold figure does not hold.

• PA Media Fact Check — More people are paying higher-rate income tax than five years ago

Why the claim is misleading

• Changing denominators: Some versions compare higher-rate taxpayers to “all adults” in one year and to “income-tax payers” in another, which inflates the ratio.
• Mixed time periods: Combining a current-year higher-rate count with an older baseline of total taxpayers creates a mismatch.
• Policy vs headline number: Threshold freezes explain much of the increase, but that does not justify a blanket “five-fold” statement about the share without careful definitions.

Context

Threshold freezes can raise the tax take without changing headline rates, because pay rises move more people across fixed bands. This is important context for tax-policy debates, but it does not validate any specific multiplier about how the share of higher-rate taxpayers has changed. Voters should expect transparent baselines and consistent measurement before accepting dramatic ratios.

How to check similar claims

• Ask what population is being used as the denominator — all adults, all earners, or income-tax payers.
• Check that the years being compared use the same definitions and the same data source.
• Look for the original table or dataset and see if the multiplier can be replicated from official figures.

Related reading

• Farage Exposed — Disinformation
• Farage Exposed — Media and Regulation