Fact Check: Reform UK’s tax plan costed at £50–80 billion (May 2025)

🗣️ The Claim

In May 2025, Nigel Farage unveiled a Reform UK tax plan promising sweeping income tax cuts and increased public spending. Critics and economists argued that the plan would leave a funding shortfall of £50–80 billion.

📍 The Context

  • Reform UK positioned the plan as a pro-growth, pro-freedom package aimed at reducing the tax burden.
  • Proposals included lowering income tax, scrapping inheritance tax, and boosting NHS and defence spending.
  • Farage and Reform UK framed the plan as fully affordable through economic growth and “cutting waste.”

🔎 The Facts

  1. Independent Costings
    • The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and other economists examined the plan.
    • They concluded it would leave a large funding gap of £50–80 billion, depending on growth assumptions.
  2. Government Spending Realities
    • Major spending pledges (NHS, defence, pensions) would add significant pressure to public finances.
    • “Efficiency savings” and cuts to waste are often cited in political manifestos, but the IFS notes they rarely cover gaps of this scale.
  3. Historic Comparisons
    • Previous attempts to fund big tax cuts through growth (e.g. Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget) caused financial instability and were quickly reversed.
    • Economists warned Reform’s plan carried similar risks.
  4. Reform UK’s Response
    • Farage insisted the plan would unleash growth and “pay for itself.”
    • However, he provided no detailed modelling or independent verification to back this claim.

✅ Verdict: False

Independent analysis shows Reform UK’s tax plan would create a funding gap of £50–80 billion with no credible plan to close it. Farage’s claim that the plan is affordable is false.

📚 Sources