Claim: “People who arrive illegally are 24× more likely to end up in prison.”
⚠️ Verdict: Misleading
Summary: The figure relies on non-comparable groups and methods. Independent reviewers say the calculation is unreliable and exaggerates differences that the official data cannot support.
Overview
In July 2025 Nigel Farage repeated a striking statistic in interviews and campaign posts that people who “come here illegally” are 24 times more likely to end up in prison. The line spread quickly across social platforms and was reused in graphics and media appearances. Within days, fact-checkers and criminal justice experts challenged the number and questioned the methods used to arrive at it.
What was claimed
The statement appeared in broadcast segments and social posts and was presented as if it were based on official figures. No single, citable study was provided alongside the claim. Later references pointed to a mixture of statistics that do not describe the same groups and do not cover the same time periods.
What the data actually show
Reviewers traced the “24×” figure to a calculation that divided the number of foreign nationals in prison by a separate figure for recent small-boat arrivals. These are not the same population. The foreign national category includes anyone without UK citizenship regardless of how or when they entered the country. Small-boat arrivals are a narrow and recent subset. Combining them inflates the apparent ratio and produces a headline number that cannot be reproduced from official sources.
In addition, the calculation mixed data from different years and ignored key factors like age and sex that strongly influence imprisonment rates. Because of these issues the resulting multiplier does not tell readers anything meaningful about the risk that an individual asylum seeker or irregular entrant will go to prison.
Findings from independent fact-checkers
A live fact check published on 15 July 2025 concluded that there is no sound basis for saying that people who arrive by irregular means are 24 times more likely to be imprisoned than UK-born citizens. The analysis explained that the groups being compared are not aligned and that the available Home Office and Ministry of Justice releases do not support the ratio that was claimed.
Context and impact
The statistic fit a broader narrative linking border control to crime, which helped it spread before corrections could catch up. Polling snapshots taken after the claim circulated suggested that many people who saw the figure believed it was probably true. This shows how repetition can embed a number in public debate even when its foundations are weak.
Why the claim is misleading
- It confuses foreign nationals with people who entered illegally, which are different categories.
- It combines datasets from different periods and different definitions, so the ratio cannot be replicated.
- It ignores demographic factors such as age and sex that strongly affect imprisonment rates.
Because of these problems, the “24×” figure gives a distorted picture of criminality among people who arrive by irregular routes.
How readers can verify similar claims
- Look for a published dataset or report that matches the exact wording of the claim.
- Check whether the two groups being compared are defined in the same way and cover the same time period.
- Be cautious with “times more likely” statements that do not show the underlying numbers or the base rate.