Fact Check: Farage claims “illegal migrants are 24 times more likely to be imprisoned” (July 2025)

🗣️ The Claim

In July 2025, Nigel Farage said that “those who come illegally are 24 times more likely to end up in prison”, using the figure to argue for mass deportations and tougher immigration enforcement.

📍 The Context

  • The claim was made during speeches about small boat crossings and asylum seekers.
  • Farage presented the statistic as proof that “illegal migration” directly fuels crime.
  • It was quickly amplified on social media and referenced in Reform UK campaign material.

🔎 The Facts

  1. Source of the Statistic
    • The figure comes from Ministry of Justice prison statistics showing the proportion of foreign nationals in prison compared to their share of the general population.
    • However, the raw ratio does not distinguish between:
      • Long-term legal migrants
      • Short-term visa overstayers
      • Asylum seekers
      • UK-born dual nationals
  2. Flawed Comparison
    • Foreign nationals make up around 12% of the prison population, but only ~9% of the UK population.
    • This difference is not equivalent to “24 times more likely.”
    • The 24x figure comes from cherry-picking small subgroups and comparing them incorrectly to the entire UK population.
  3. Full Fact’s Analysis
    • Independent fact-checkers reviewed the claim and found it misleading.
    • The statistic exaggerates risk by conflating categories and ignoring context such as offences linked to immigration status (e.g. visa breaches), which inflate prison figures without implying higher general criminality.
  4. Expert Views
    • Criminologists stress that migration status alone is not a predictor of criminal behaviour.
    • Data does not support the claim that “illegal” migrants are inherently more criminal than UK citizens.

✅ Verdict: False / Misleading

Farage’s claim that “illegal migrants are 24 times more likely to be imprisoned” is not supported by the evidence. It stems from a misuse of statistics and ignores important distinctions in migration and prison data.

📚 Sources